What a balanced size curve looks like
Two stock lots can have the same brands, the same styles and the same number of units, and still sell very differently. The reason is usually the size curve: how the units are spread across sizes.
What a size curve is
A size curve is the share of units in each size. If a lot of 100 dresses has 10 in XS, 25 in S, 35 in M, 20 in L and 10 in XL, that is its size curve. Brands plan a curve for every style when they first order it, based on what they expect to sell.
Excess stock often has a different curve from the original order. The sizes that sold well at full price are gone. What is left tends to sit at the ends of the range: the very small and very large sizes, or whichever sizes were over-ordered.
Why it matters
Your customers buy in a pattern. If most of your customers wear M and L, a lot heavy in XS and XXL will sell slowly, however good the brand. You will sell the middle sizes quickly and be left with the rest.
The size curve also affects your margin. Units that sell at your planned price earn money. Units you have to mark down again, or can't sell at all, eat into it.
What balanced looks like
There is no single right curve. It depends on the category, the brand's fit and your customers. But a balanced lot usually has these features:
Most units sit in the core sizes your customers buy. For many apparel buyers that is S, M and L, but check your own sales.
The ends of the range are present but smaller. A few XS and XL units round out the range without dominating it.
No core size is missing. A gap in the middle of the range is harder to sell around than a gap at the ends.
For footwear, look at the spread across shoe sizes in the same way. For bags and accessories, size matters less, but colour and style mix play the same role.
How to check a lot's size curve
Sort the packing list by size and add up the units in each.
Turn each total into a percentage of the whole lot.
Compare it with your own sales. Take your sales by size for the same category over the past season and compare the two sets of percentages.
Look for the gaps. Where the lot has far more of a size than you usually sell, expect slower sell-through.
Using the curve in negotiation
If a lot's curve doesn't match your customers, it can still be worth buying. Price it based on what you expect to sell, not on the total unit count. A lot where half the units sit in slow sizes is worth less to you than the same lot with a curve that matches your sales.
Ask whether there are other lots with a better spread. Being clear about the sizes you need makes it easier to find stock that fits.
In short
Look past the total unit count. Check how the units are spread across sizes, compare it with what your customers actually buy, and price the lot on what you expect to sell.
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